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Seven years ago, it took just a short phrase to ignite the party's annual gathering and to show Labour was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. While not exactly soaring oratory, the phrase met with wild cheering as most of the hall stood for spontaneous acclamation.

As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". Context, however, is key.

During that darkly divisive time in 2018, straying from the prepared script in this way was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in key constituencies above the Europhile sentiments within Labour. With that single address, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who would stand up for the party's base against a leader he would later replace.

The Evolution in Position & Settled Debates

In the years since, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts upon assuming leadership in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue had been settled by the 2019 general election. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge commitments that ruled out re-entry into the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in key seats, despite survey data indicates many of them have died or changed their minds.

Pressure Building on Europe

Yet, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled Labour leader. And, if Europe may not be the boiling pot in UK politics, the cap which was tightly sealed for five years is beginning to rattle again.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up their language about the devastation caused by Brexit has caused to the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was his primary goal and remains his only real achievement.

Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, reportedly has left Britain with a national economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, towers over the minor adjustments so far offered by the government. The PM's much-touted relationship reset negotiated with the EU last summer offers economic benefits measured in fractions of a percent.

Cabinet Divergence and Ambitious Proposals

Rachel Reeves is among those trying to overcome entrenched Home Office resistance to an expansive version of a growth-enabling program for young people by which young people can travel between Britain and Europe for work or study.

The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly about the clear advantages of being in an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, last week supported an opposition proposal on joining one.

Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, now present at every cabinet meeting, maintains the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. A proposal would be to declaring the commencement of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the following election platform, to be enacted only after securing a fresh mandate.

The Prime Minister's Fundamental Scepticism

Yet, Starmer has most recently pouring cold water on the idea cautioning that a return to a European customs area would “unravel” the commercial agreements with the US, which he views as signature achievements of his government.

It is understood that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.

1. Firstly, he believes any customs union agreement is now significantly more difficult because his ministers actively diverging from European rules in numerous sectors, like environmental standards.
2. Secondly, the prohibitive cost set for the UK for entry into a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure in talks has convinced British officials that European nations have little interest in offering favorable terms to the UK than in demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
3. Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, praised by the Kremlin, is seen by some influential figures in Downing Street as a reason for the UK to keep its distance from Europe.

An Alarming Strategy & Strategic Calculations

This strange and concerning American strategy paper claims Europe faces “civilizational erasure” because of immigration. It contains only one reference to Britain, found on a proposal that the US government will intervene in our politics to foster the growth of nationalist movements.

But, far from concluding that this makes the US an undependable ally, ministers reportedly fear that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Succession Chatter & The Ghost from the Past

All of which brings us back to 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not an attempt for the leadership but simply an attempt to keep open the “option” of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. Indeed, in those days, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he currently seems to reject.

But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office note that Wes Streeting, widely considered would be a candidate for the leadership, is among a clutch of senior ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition regarding the EU.

Staff for Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a future race for the top job, maintain she refuses to comment on her position on a customs union because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Obvious Danger and A Wise Reminder

The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found.

It would be prudent for Starmer to remember the impact just a few words had on his career seven years ago. There are options for a major proposal on EU relations that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should explore them himself, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.