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China has deployed its coast guard into the maritime area of the Diaoyu islands and military drones near remote Japanese territory as China escalates tensions over the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

On Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its vessels conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Tokyo but also claimed by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the recent developments occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “unification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. The island's administration and citizens categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An military assault by China would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the US and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has territory just 68 miles from the island.

Military Activity

On the island, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was probably the coast guard, active near the territory over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to three drones flying between Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go particularly close to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said China had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added Taiwan had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. Taiwan documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since Takaichi made her comments, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other nations, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards the island.