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Mounting apprehensions are present about the chance of armed conflict between East African neighbours, the Ethiopian government and the Eritrean government, as confrontational language has intensified in recent weeks.

What Has Ethiopia Declared?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, calls for entry to the maritime outlet through Eritrea has sparked a fierce war of words.

The Ethiopian leader previously announced in 2023 that his nation's sea access was an crucial concern, comments that Eritrea ignored.

Diplomatic connections between the both governments have frequently been strained. After a long-standing struggle for freedom, the Eritrean state, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) sea border, officially seceded from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, leaving it cut off from the sea.

In 1998, a territorial conflict erupted in which numerous people died.

Current Remarks from Ethiopia's Leadership

Prime Minister Abiy and military leader General Birhanu Jula have openly claimed sovereignty of Eritrean maritime facility of the port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the boundary - and hinted at the intention to seize it militarily.

On 1 September, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "error" of losing entry to the Red Sea as a due to Eritrea's separation would be "addressed tomorrow".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that Assab was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be restored "through military action".

Eritrean Answer to the Statements

Despite continuous threats from Ethiopia, Eritrea's reaction has been confined to brief comments on X from Communications Head the minister.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopian requests for maritime entry calling it "risky" and a "toxic agenda" of "territorial claims" – a policy of claiming back lost territory.

Eritrean authorities alerted on mid-September that attempts to justify "obvious provocation" would have major implications for the Ethiopian government and its neighbouring countries and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Movements on the Ground

Currently, there are few indications of major military movements in the boundary zones between the neighboring states.

Nonetheless, in the country, state television has broadcast completion events of numerous trainees at multiple army bases.

The leader of staff section of the military, General Hachalu, stated recently in an interview that the defense forces was in a "strong stance" as "many thousands of recruits" were joining it, which he said was "a message to our opponents".

Previous Roots of the Conflict

For decades from the late 19th century, Eritrea was administered by colonial powers.

After the end of Italian rule, it was then administered by the UK forces before evolving into a federated part of the Ethiopian empire.

However in 1962 Emperor Haile Selassie I terminated this system and the region became totally absorbed into Ethiopia.

A extended civil war followed, concluding with the government's loss in 1991. Independence was then endorsed by Eritreans in a referendum in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the governments in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they clashed over the exact location of their shared boundary, leading to hostilities in 1998.

Although this ended in a truce in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the two nations continued at in dispute.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made overtures to Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. The both leaders endorsed a announcement that the war was finished – a move that gained the Prime Minister the Nobel Peace Prize.

The both administrations were then partners in Ethiopia's recent civil war in the northern region.

Yet ties have subsequently deteriorated anew.