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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are released from different nations. Significant resources is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a ability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.

Current Realities

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.